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Published on 8/4/2017 in the Prospect News Emerging Markets Daily.

S&P downgrades Congo

S&P said it lowered the long- and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on the Democratic Republic of Congo to CCC+/C from B-/B. The outlook is stable.

The downgrade reflects the agency’s opinion that unless the political crisis is resolved and donor funding is restored, currency depreciation and runaway inflation will persist and reserves will remain extremely low, making debt servicing more challenging.

S&P said the stable outlook reflects the absence of commercial debt maturing within the next year and the fact that stabilizing copper and high cobalt prices should support exports. Some foreign direct investment inflows should limit the risk of reserves depleting further.

“The downgrade reflects our view that unless the ongoing electoral crisis is resolved such that donor inflows are restored and FDI inflows rebound sustainably, depreciation of the Congolese franc is inevitable, as is soaring inflation. In this scenario, reserves levels will remain dramatically low, constraining the government's capacity to service its foreign currency debt,” S&P said in a news release.

Moody’s downgrades Icici Bank UK

Moody's Investors Service said it downgraded the long-term deposit and senior unsecured ratings of Icici Bank UK plc, the U.K. subsidiary of Icici Bank Ltd., to Baa1 from A3.

In addition, the agency downgraded the subordinate ratings to Ba1 from Baa3, the junior subordinate program ratings to provisional Ba3 from provisional Ba2 and the adjusted baseline credit assessment (BCA) to ba1 from baa3.

Moody’s also downgraded the long-term counterparty risk assessment to Baa1(cr) from A3(cr) and affirmed the P-2 short-term deposit ratings and P-2(cr) short-term counterparty risk assessment. The BCA was affirmed at ba2.

The outlook was changed to stable from positive.

Moody’s said the action follows the July 24 downgrade of the baseline credit assessment of Icici Bank Ltd. to ba1 from baa3. The outlook was at the same time changed to stable from positive.

Moody's downgrades Rodovias do Tiete

Moody's Investors Service said it downgraded Concessionaria Rodovias do Tiete SA's corporate family and senior secured ratings to Caa2 from Caa1 on the global scale and Caa2.br from B3.br on the Brazilian national scale.

The outlook remains negative.

The downgrades reflect an expectation that the company's initial debt restructuring proposal would imply a 10% to 20% loss to the existing debenture holders, if approved, Moody's said.

The agency said it also perceives much weaker support from Rodovias do Tiete's main shareholders which materially limits the company's ability to address the problems related to its capital structure.

Further deterioration of the company's liquidity position would negatively affect the ratings, Moody's added, as would a debt restructuring that infers higher-than-expected loses to creditors.

Moody's downgrades Teva

Moody's Investors Service said it downgraded the senior unsecured ratings of Teva Pharmaceutical Industries, Ltd. and its subsidiaries to Baa3 from Baa2 and maintained the outlook at negative.

Teva's backed senior unsecured rating was downgraded to Baa3 from Baa2, along with its senior unsecured shelf to provisional Baa3 from provisional Baa2 and backed senior unsecured shelf to provisional Baa3 from provisional Baa2.

The outlook is negative.

The downgrades reflects slower de-leveraging by the company than anticipated as Teva contends with weakness in its U.S. generics business and the looming threat of generic competition on Copaxone 40 mg, Moody's explained.

As a result, the agency said it believes the company's debt-to-EBITDA ratio will remain elevated above 4x over the next 18 months, the agency said.

Pricing pressure and delays in new product launches also will continue to be headwinds in its U.S. generics business through 2018, Moody's said.

Moody's rates Huiyuan Juice notes B1

Moody's Investors Service said it assigned a first-time B1 corporate family rating to China Huiyuan Juice Group Ltd.

The agency also said it assigned a B1 senior unsecured rating to its proposed dollar-denominated notes.

The outlook is stable.

The proceeds from the notes issuance will be used to refinance certain existing indebtedness and for other general corporate purposes, Moody's said.

The ratings reflect the company's leading position and strong brand name in China's growing fruit juice market, its vertically integrated business model and improved profitability, the agency said.

China Huiyuan has more than 20 years of operational experience in the juice industry in China, Moody's said.

It has established significant brand recognition in the country based on the fact that it was one of the pioneers in launching 100% juice products during the 1990s, the agency said.

The ratings also consider the favorable demand trend existent in China, supported by urbanization, rising disposable income levels and a greater focus by consumers on natural foods, Moody's said.

Fitch: China Huiyuan notes B+

Fitch Ratings said it assigned a long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating of B+ to China Huiyuan Juice Group Ltd., along with a senior unsecured rating of B+ with a recovery rating of RR4.

The agency also said it assigned an expected B+ rating with recovery rating of RR4 to the proposed dollar-denominated senior unsecured notes to be issued by Huiyuan Juice.

The proposed notes are rated at the same level as Huiyuan Juice's senior unsecured rating as they constitute its direct and senior unsecured obligations, Fitch said.

The outlook is stable.

The ratings are supported by the company's strong brand name and long operating history in China's juice market and its efforts in expanding and diversifying its product range internally and through acquisitions, the agency said.

The ratings are constrained by the company's volatile top line performance, relatively small business scale and high leverage, Fitch said.

S&P lifts Hutchison Port to positive

S&P said it revised the outlook on Hutchison Port Holdings Trust to positive from stable.

The agency also said it affirmed the company's BBB+ long-term corporate credit rating.

S&P also said it affirmed the BBB+ long-term issue ratings on the company's outstanding guaranteed senior unsecured notes.

The outlook revision follows the same rating action on the company's ultimate parent, CK Hutchison Holdings Ltd., the agency said.

S&P said it continues to assess Hutchison Port as a strategically important member of CK Hutchison.

The positive outlook reflects an expectation that the CK Hutchison group's financial performance is likely to remain strong despite volatile global economic conditions and an anticipation of rising interest rates, the agency said.

The scale and pace of the group's new investments are expected to moderate further compared with a few years ago, S&P said.

S&P revises Petra to negative

S&P said it has revised its outlook on Petra Diamonds Ltd. to negative from stable and affirmed its B+ long-term corporate credit rating on the company.

The agency also affirmed its B+ issue rating on the $650 million senior secured second-lien notes issued by finance company Petra Diamonds US Treasury plc. The 4 recovery rating on these notes is unchanged, indicating an expectation of average recovery (30%-50%; rounded estimate 40%) in the event of a payment default.

S&P said the outlook revision stems from Petra's increased leverage, with funds from operations to debt that it estimates at below 20% as of June 30.

“This figure is lower than our forecast of over 30% at the beginning of the year, and well below the 45% we would assume under normal operating conditions or 30% at the trough of the diamond price cycle, both of which are commensurate with a B+ rating. In addition, the ratio has deteriorated from 24% in fiscal 2016,” S&P said in a news release.

S&P revises Israel outlook to positive

S&P said it revised the outlook on the State of Israel to positive from stable and affirmed its A+/A-1 long‐ and short‐term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings.

The agency said the positive outlook reflects its opinion that, despite existing spending pressures, there is a potential for stronger-than-anticipated general government fiscal performance over the next two years.

“We expect that Israel's economic and balance-of-payments dynamics will stay strong while security risks remain contained,” S&P said in a news release.

The rating action reflects the agency’s opinion that Israel's improved fiscal framework and strong economic growth could enable further progress on fiscal consolidation over the next few years.

Moody's: Entel view to stable

Moody's Investors Service said it changed the outlook on Empresa Nacional de Telecomunicaciones SA (Entel SA) to stable from negative and affirmed the global and national scale corporate family ratings of Ba3 and Aaa.bo.

The outlook revision follows the recent change on the Bolivia's outlook to stable from negative, the agency explained.

The stable outlook on Entel reflects the stable outlook on the ratings of the government of Bolivia, which owns 97.5% of Entel's shares, Moody's said.

The change of the sovereign outlook to stable incorporates Bolivia's stabilizing fiscal and current account deficits, which suggest that the impact of lower hydrocarbon prices on the sovereign's credit profile has been contained, the agency said.

Moody's said it expects that Bolivia's growth and fiscal and external metrics will likely remain consistent with its Ba3 rating.

Entel's ratings consider the company's operating strength among peers and strong liquidity, the agency noted.

S&P affirms Albania

S&P said it affirmed its B+/B long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings on the Republic of Albania. The outlook remains stable.

The stable outlook reflects the agency’s expectation that the government of Albania will maintain its commitment to fiscal consolidation, particularly on the revenues side, supported by steady economic growth and the authorities' increased capability to enforce tax compliance.

“Lower risks associated with the country’s gradually declining debt-to-GDP ratio will also help to reduce the government’s interest bill as a share of government revenues. At the same time, the country will continue to strengthen its institutions ahead of the EU accession process, and we expect its external financing position will not deteriorate,” S&P said in a news release.

The agency said the ratings on Albania reflect the country's steady progress toward fiscal consolidation, despite political tensions in mid-2017, aided by steady economic growth and reform progress.

“Overall, we note that Albania fiscally outperforms its peers in the same rating category. The current exchange rate regime is more stable than peers', and Albania has improved its institutional set-up,” S&P added in the release.

The agency expects that Albania, coming from a low base, will be able to generate solid economic growth rates of about 3.8% per year on average in real terms during 2017-2020.

S&P affirms Kuwait

S&P said it affirmed its AA/A-1+ long- and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Kuwait. The outlook is stable.

The stable outlook reflects the agency’s expectation that Kuwait's public and external balance sheets will remain strong over the forecast horizon, backed by a significant stock of financial assets.

“We expect these strengths to offset risks related to the current low oil price, Kuwait's undiversified oil economy, and what we assess as its relatively nascent parliamentary system, in addition to geopolitical tensions in the region,” S&P said in a news release.

The agency said the ratings on Kuwait continue to be supported by the sovereign's high levels of accumulated fiscal, external, and household wealth, despite the subdued – albeit improved – oil price environment. The ratings are constrained by the concentrated nature of the economy and regional geopolitical tensions.

“Kuwait derives about 60% of GDP, more than 90% of exports, and about 90% of fiscal receipts from hydrocarbon products. Given this high reliance on the oil sector, we view Kuwait's economy as undiversified,” S&P added in the release.

S&P affirms Mozambique

S&P said it affirmed its long- and short-term foreign currency ratings on the Republic of Mozambique at SD/SD and its long- and short-term local currency sovereign credit ratings at B-/B.

The outlook remains stable.

The agency said the ratings at SD or D do not carry an outlook because they express a condition (default), and not a forward-looking opinion of default probability.

The stable outlook on the local currency rating reflects the agency’s view that metical-denominated government debt will continue to be honored.

“We do not anticipate that the Republic of Mozambique will include local currency debt in any upcoming restructuring or exchange offer on its dollar-denominated bond notes,” S&P said in a news release.

The agency said the affirmation of its SD foreign currency ratings stems from the government of Mozambique remaining in arrears on its obligation on the $727 million fixed-rate notes issued in April 2016 and maturing in 2023.

“The affirmation of our local currency ratings stems from our expectations that the Republic of Mozambique will continue to honor debt denominated in Mozambican metical and will not incorporate it into any restructuring talks,” S&P added in the release.


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