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Published on 12/23/2014 in the Prospect News Emerging Markets Daily.

Ruble continues recovery, Rosneft repays some of loan; Russian bonds trade up

By Christine Van Dusen

Atlanta, Dec. 23 – Bonds from Russia received some attention in limited trading on Tuesday as the ruble continued to recover from the month’s lows.

The ruble has appreciated about 19% since closing on Dec. 16 at 67.9 versus the dollar, according to a report from Commerzbank Research.

“The speculative spiral of the past month appears to have finally been broken by the resolute Central Bank and Finance Ministry action,” the report said. “While there is always the risk of the market retesting the CB’s resolve again, if and when a credit-negative event were to occur, a relapse appears unlikely in the very near-term.”

In other positive news from Russia, the government is seeking more support for its local banking system and, in the process, delaying any increase in capital adequacy requirements. And oil company OAO Rosneft repaid some of the bridge loan it took out for the acquisition of TNK-BP.

“All of the above are helping calm sentiment in the [market] amidst an obviously slowing economy,” Commerzbank said.

In response, Russia’s 3 5/8% 2015s were trading Tuesday at 100.20 bid, 100.60 offered following Friday’s levels of 99.60 bid, 100.15 offered, a trader said.

The 3¼% 2017s – which traded Friday at 94¾ bid, 95.35 offered – were seen at 96 bid, 96.60 offered on Tuesday.

The 3½% 2019s that traded Friday at 90.12 bid, 91.12 offered moved to 91.90 bid, 92.90 offered on Tuesday morning. The 5% 2020s that were seen Friday at 93.85 bid, 94.60 offered traded at 95.80 bid, 96.20 offered on Tuesday.

And the 5 7/8% notes due 2043 traded Tuesday at 89.80 bid, 90.80 after being quoted Friday at 87.05 bid, 87.55 offered.


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