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Published on 2/10/2003 in the Prospect News Bank Loan Daily, Prospect News Convertibles Daily and Prospect News High Yield Daily.

Deterioration of credit quality slows so far in first quarter, Moody's says

New York, Feb. 10 - The pace of deterioration in credit quality has slowed in the first quarter so far, according to Moody's Investors Service.

With nearly half of the quarter complete, the three month period is on track for the best performance since the third quarter of 1999.

So far this year the upgrade-to-downgrade ratio is 0.61:1, Moody's said.

That is a marked improvement from 0.14:1 in the final quarter of 2002, which was the lowest level since Moody's began tracking the data in the first quarter of 1986.

Since the fourth quarter of 2000, the upgrade-to-downgrade ratio has not been higher than 0.4:1, Moody's analyst Jessica Walker added in a report.

Walker also noted that so far in the first quarter there have been more rising stars than fallen angels, with two homebuilders and International Game Technology making the move up to investment grade from junk while Citgo Petroleum Corp. went in the other direction.

The last time rising stars exceeded fallen angels was the third quarter of 2000, Walker noted.


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