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Published on 6/29/2006 in the Prospect News Emerging Markets Daily.

S&P: Poland to need reform

Standard & Poor's said in a report that without concerted policy and fiscal reforms, the aging Polish population will lead to intense pressure on the public finances and the ratings on Poland (foreign currency BBB+/stable/A-2).

"Absent further reforms, total age related public expenditures in Poland will rise to 22.5% of GDP in 2050, up from 18.4% in 2005," said S&P credit analyst Kai Stukenbrock.

"In this scenario, general government deficits and net debt would rise sharply from 2020 to reach 19% and 262% of GDP by 2050.

"This suggests that the key challenge to the sustainability of Poland's public finances lies in the weak fiscal starting position," Stukenbrock added.


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