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Published on 7/5/2005 in the Prospect News Emerging Markets Daily.

S&P study: 8 BB sovereigns vulnerable

Standard & Poor's said it published a comparative study that finds that eight sovereigns in the BB category - Colombia, Brazil, India, Morocco, Panama, Peru, the Philippines and Turkey - are on an improving ratings trajectory but still remain vulnerable to political and economic factors.

The commentary titled "BB Level Sovereigns: On an Improving Trajectory, But Still Vulnerable," finds that both political stability and fiscal management have improved in these eight sovereigns.

"In addition to other economic factors, increased political stability has underpinned positive rating dynamics over the past three years," said S&P credit analyst Richard Francis.

"The ratings on most of these sovereigns (with the notable exception of the Philippines) have improved during this time period," Francis added.

According to S&P, most of these sovereigns have, to varying degrees, seen pragmatic policies stemming from maturing political processes take root. However, a number of challenges remain, including significant income disparities and high levels of poverty.

Fiscal challenges also persist in many of the sovereigns, exemplified by already-high taxes and fees, collection difficulties and/or spending pressures, the agency said.


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