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Published on 10/31/2018 in the Prospect News Emerging Markets Daily.

Fitch lowers Mexico view to negative

Fitch Ratings said it affirmed Mexico's long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at BBB+ and has revised the outlook to negative from stable.

The outlook revision reflects the deteriorating balance of risks confronting Mexico's credit profile associated with scope for policy uncertainty and deterioration under the incoming administration, Fitch said.

The negative outlook also considers growing risks for contingent liabilities for the sovereign from Petroleos Mexicanos SAB de CV (Pemex) against a background of persistent economic under-performance relative to peers, the agency said.

The election in July of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador to the presidency, with a strong mandate to tackle corruption, promises a significant shift in policy priorities and a different style of governing.

While Fitch said it expects the incoming administration to continue to embrace the core aspects of the macro policy framework, downside risks related to the incoming administration's fiscal stance persist.

Oil production, dominated by state-owned Pemex, continued to decline in 2018, bucking expectations that it would stabilize, Fitch explained.


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