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Published on 5/18/2021 in the Prospect News Emerging Markets Daily.

Fitch Affirms Oman at BB-

Fitch Ratings has affirmed Oman's long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at BB- with a negative outlook.

In 2020 Oman's budget deficit increased to 18% of GDP and government debt/GDP spiked to 79% (from 60% in 2019), as oil prices declined by a third and nominal GDP by 15%.

Real GDP contracted by an estimated 5.2% owing to coronavirus-related restrictions and lower oil production linked to the OPEC+ agreement.

Government debt had already been on a steep uptrend, climbing from 6% of GDP in 2014, amid oil price declines and limited fiscal reforms. SOE debt also increased in 2020, to 44% of GDP from 31% in 2019.

Rating sensitivities are linked to public finances based on the trajectory of government debt/GDP and Oman’s external balance sheet and liquidity conditions.


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