Moody's applies joint default analysis to local governments in Europe

Moody's Investors Service said the application of its joint default analysis methodology to regional and local governments in Europe, the Middle East and Africa resulted in the upgrade of 55 governments, the downgrade of three governments and the affirmation of 85 governments.

The methodology formally disaggregates the ratings of regional and local governments into four components: an assessment of the local or regional government's baseline credit risk on a-scale of 1 to 21, where 1 represents the equivalent risk of Aaa, 2 represents Aa1 and so forth; the higher-tier or supporting government's domestic currency rating; an estimate of the default dependence between the local or regional government and the supporting government, expressed as a percentage; and an estimate of the likelihood of extraordinary support from the supporting government, also expressed as a percentage.

Below is a list of the joints default analysis inputs and final ratings for the regional and local governments in the rated emerging markets of Europe, the Middle East and Africa.

Bulgaria

City of Pazardjik: issuer rating affirmed at Ba3 with a stable outlook based on a baseline credit assessment of 13, the Baa3 rating on the Government of Bulgaria, 5% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

Croatia

City of Zagreb: issuer rating upgraded to Baa1 with a stable outlook from Baa2 based on a baseline credit assessment of 8, Baa1 rating on Croatia, 65% probability of support and 70% default dependence.

Czech Republic

Global-scale ratings upgraded

City of Brno: issuer and debt rating upgraded to A2 with a stable outlook from A3 based on a baseline credit assessment of 7, the A1 rating with a positive outlook on the Czech Republic, 35% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

Region of Moravian-Silesian: issuer rating upgraded to A2 with a stable outlook from A3 based on a baseline credit assessment of 7, the A1 rating with a positive outlook on the Czech Republic, 35% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

City of Ostrava: issuer rating upgraded to A2 with a stable outlook from A3 based on a baseline credit assessment of 7, the A1 rating with a positive outlook on the Czech Republic, 35% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

City of Prague: issuer rating upgraded to A1 with a stable outlook from A2 based on a baseline credit assessment of 6, the A1 rating with a positive outlook on the Czech Republic, 80% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

National-scale ratings upgraded

City of Beroun: issuer national-scale rating upgraded to Aa1.cz with a stable outlook from Aa2.cz based on a baseline credit assessment of 8, the A1 global-scale rating with a positive outlook on the Czech Republic, 35% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

City of Pribram: issuer national-scale rating upgraded to Aa1.cz with a stable outlook from Aa2.cz based on a baseline credit assessment of 8, the A1 global-scale rating with a positive outlook on the Czech Republic, 35% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

City of Trebic: issuer national-scale rating upgraded to Aa1.cz with a stable outlook from Aa2.cz based on a baseline credit assessment of 8, the A1 global-scale rating with a positive outlook on the Czech Republic, 35% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

City of Ústi nad Orlici: issuer national-scale rating upgraded to Aa1.cz with a stable outlook from Aa2.cz based on a baseline credit assessment of 8, the A1 global-scale rating with a positive outlook on the Czech Republic, 35% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

National-scale ratings affirmed

City of Ceska Lipa: issuer national-scale rating affirmed at Aa1.cz with a stable outlook based on a baseline credit assessment of 6, the A1 global-scale rating with a positive outlook on the Czech Republic, 35% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

City of Klatovy: issuer national-scale rating affirmed at Aa1.cz with a stable outlook based on a baseline credit assessment of 7, the A1 global-scale rating with a positive outlook on the Czech Republic, 35% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

Region of Liberec: issuer national-scale rating affirmed at Aa1.cz with a stable outlook based on a baseline credit assessment of 7, the A1 global-scale rating with a positive outlook on the Czech Republic, 35% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

Region of Plzen: issuer national-scale rating affirmed at Aa1.cz with a stable outlook based on a baseline credit assessment of 6, the A1 global-scale rating with a positive outlook on the Czech Republic, 35% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

City of Prostejov: issuer national-scale rating affirmed at Aa1.cz with a stable outlook based on a baseline credit assessment of 6, the A1 global-scale rating with a positive outlook on the Czech Republic, 35% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

City of Uherske Hradište: issuer national-scale rating affirmed at Aa1.cz with a stable outlook based on a baseline credit assessment of 7, the A1 global-scale rating with a positive outlook on the Czech Republic, 35% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

Region of Ústi: issuer national-scale rating affirmed at Aa1.cz with a stable outlook based on a baseline credit assessment of 7, the A1 global-scale rating with a positive outlook on the Czech Republic, 35% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

City of Zdar nad Sazavou: issuer national-scale rating affirmed at Aa1.cz with a stable outlook based on a baseline credit assessment of 7, the A1 global-scale rating with a positive outlook on the Czech Republic, 35% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

Hungary

City of Budapest: the issuer rating of A1 remains under review for possible downgrade based on a baseline credit assessment of 7, the review for possible downgrade of Hungary's A1 rating, 100% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

Kazakhstan

City of Astana: issuer rating affirmed at Ba1 with a stable outlook based on a baseline credit assessment of 12, the Baa1 rating on Kazakhstan, 50% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

City of Almaty: issuer rating affirmed at Ba1 and outlook changed to stable from positive based on a baseline credit assessment of 12, the Baa1 rating on Kazakhstan, 50% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

Poland

City of Poznan: issuer rating affirmed at A3 with a stable outlook based on a baseline credit assessment of 7, the A2 rating on The Republic of Poland, 35% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

Russia

Ratings upgraded

Republic of Chuvashia: issuer rating upgraded to Ba2 with a stable outlook from Ba3 and Russia National-scale issuer rating upgraded to Aa2.ru from Aa3.ru based on a baseline credit assessment of 12, the Baa2 rating on the Russian Federation, 20% probability of support and 70% default dependence.

Republic of Komi: issuer rating upgraded to Ba2 with a stable outlook from Ba3 based on a baseline credit assessment of 12, the Baa2 rating on the Russian Federation, 20% probability of support and 50% default dependence.

City of Moscow: issuer and debt ratings upgraded to Baa1 with a stable outlook from Baa2 and Russia national-scale issuer rating affirmed at Aaa.ru based on a baseline credit assessment of 9, the Baa2 rating on the Russian Federation, 50% probability of support and 50% default dependence.

Oblast of Moscow: issuer rating upgraded to Ba2 with a stable outlook from Ba3 based on a baseline credit assessment of 12, the Baa2 rating on the Russian Federation, 20% probability of support and 50% default dependence.

Oblast of Samara: issuer rating upgraded to Ba1 with a stable outlook from Ba2 and Russia national-scale issuer and debt ratings upgraded to Aa1.ru from Aa2.ru based on a baseline credit assessment of 11, the Baa2 rating on the Russian Federation, 20% probability of support and 70% default dependence.

Ratings affirmed

Republic of Bashkortostan: issuer rating affirmed at Ba1 with a stable outlook based on a baseline credit assessment of 11, the Baa2 rating on the Russian Federation, 20% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

Oblast of Perm: issuer rating affirmed at Ba1 with a stable outlook and Russia national-scale issuer rating affirmed at Aa1.ru based on a baseline credit assessment of 11, the Baa2 rating on the Russian Federation, 20% probability of support and 70% default dependence.

City of St. Petersburg: issuer rating affirmed at Baa2 with a stable outlook and Russia national-scale issuer rating affirmed at Aaa.ru based on a baseline credit assessment of 10, the Baa2 rating on the Russian Federation, 50% probability of support and 50% default dependence.

Republic of Tatarstan: issuer rating affirmed at Ba1 with a stable outlook based on a baseline credit assessment of 11, the Baa2 rating on the Russian Federation, 20% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

Slovak Republic

National-scale ratings upgraded

City of Košice: national-scale issuer rating upgraded to Aa2.sk with a stable outlook from Aa3.sk based on a baseline credit assessment of 9, the A1 global-scale rating on the Slovak Republic, 20% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

Region of Košice: national-scale issuer rating upgraded to Aa1.sk with a stable outlook from Aa2.sk based on a baseline credit assessment of 8, the A1 global-scale rating on the Slovak Republic, 50% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

City of Nova Dubnica: national-scale issuer rating upgraded to Aa2.sk with a stable outlook from Aa3.sk based on a baseline credit assessment of 9, the A1 global-scale rating on the Slovak Republic, 20% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

City of Poprad: national-scale issuer rating upgraded to Aa1.sk with a stable outlook from Aa2.sk based on a baseline credit assessment of 7, the A1 global-scale rating on the Slovak Republic, 20% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

City of Povazska Bystrica: national-scale issuer rating upgraded to Aa1.sk with a stable outlook from Aa2.sk based on a baseline credit assessment of 7, the A1 global-scale rating on the Slovak Republic, 20% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

City of Prešov: national-scale issuer rating upgraded to Aa1.sk with a stable outlook from Aa2.sk based on a baseline credit assessment of 7, the A1 global-scale rating on the Slovak Republic, 20% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

City of Spišska Nova Ves: national-scale issuer rating upgraded to Aa1.sk with a stable outlook from Aa2.sk based on a baseline credit assessment of 7, the A1 global-scale rating on the Slovak Republic, 20% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

National-scale ratings affirmed

City of Banska Bystrica: national-scale issuer rating affirmed at Aa2.sk with a stable outlook based on a baseline credit assessment of 8, the A1 global-scale rating on the Slovak Republic, 20% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

City of Bernolakovo: national-scale issuer rating affirmed at Aa2.sk with a stable outlook based on a baseline credit assessment of 8, the A1 global-scale rating on the Slovak Republic, 20% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

City of Galanta: national-scale issuer rating affirmed at Aa2.sk with a stable outlook based on a baseline credit assessment of 8, the A1 global-scale rating on the Slovak Republic, 20% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

City of Handlova: national-scale issuer rating affirmed at Aa3.sk with a stable outlook based on a baseline credit assessment of 10, the A1 global-scale rating on the Slovak Republic, 20% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

City of Holic: national-scale issuer rating affirmed at Aa2.sk with a stable outlook based on a baseline credit assessment of 9, the A1 global-scale rating on the Slovak Republic, 20% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

City of Krompachy: national-scale issuer rating affirmed at Aa2.sk with a stable outlook based on a baseline credit assessment of 9, the A1 global-scale rating on the Slovak Republic, 20% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

City of Krupina: national-scale issuer rating affirmed at Aa2.sk with a stable outlook based on a baseline credit assessment of 8, the A1 global-scale rating on the Slovak Republic, 20% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

City of Malacky: national-scale issuer rating affirmed at Aa2.sk with a stable outlook based on a baseline credit assessment of 8, the A1 global-scale rating on the Slovak Republic, 20% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

City of Myjava: national-scale issuer rating affirmed at Aa2.sk with a stable outlook based on a baseline credit assessment of 9, the A1 global-scale rating on the Slovak Republic, 20% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

City of Prievidza: national-scale issuer rating affirmed at Aa2.sk with a stable outlook based on a baseline credit assessment of 8, the A1 global-scale rating on the Slovak Republic, 20% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

City of Púchov: national-scale issuer rating affirmed at Aa1.sk with a stable outlook based on a baseline credit assessment of 7, the A1 global-scale rating on the Slovak Republic, 20% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

City of Šala: national-scale issuer rating affirmed at Aa3.sk with a stable outlook based on a baseline credit assessment of 10, the A1 global-scale rating on the Slovak Republic, 20% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

City of Turcianske Teplice: national-scale issuer rating affirmed at Aa2.sk with a stable outlook based on a baseline credit assessment of 8, the A1 global-scale rating on the Slovak Republic, 20% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

National-scale ratings downgraded

District of Bratislava Raca: national-scale issuer rating downgraded to Aa2.sk with a stable outlook from Aa1.sk based on a baseline credit assessment of 9, the A1 rating on the Slovak Republic, 20% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

Turkey

Metropolitan Municipality of Istanbul: issuer rating upgraded to Ba3 with a stable outlook from B1 with a positive outlook based on a baseline credit assessment of 13, the Ba3 rating on the Republic of Turkey, 65% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

Ukraine

City of Berdyansk: issuer rating upgraded to B1 with a stable outlook from B2 and Ukraine national-scale issuer rating upgraded to Aa3.ua from A2.ua based on a baseline credit assessment of 14,the B1 rating with a positive outlook on the Government of Ukraine, 20% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

City of Kharkiv: issuer rating upgraded to B1 with a stable outlook from B2 based on a baseline credit assessment of 14, the B1 rating with positive outlook on the Government of Ukraine, 20% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

City of Kyiv: debt and issuer ratings upgraded to B1 with positive outlook from B2 based on a baseline credit assessment of 14, the B1 rating with a positive outlook on the Government of Ukraine, 50% probability of support and 90% default dependence.

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