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Published on 8/29/2005 in the Prospect News Emerging Markets Daily.

Fitch cuts Ecuador sovereign view to negative

Fitch Ratings said it changed the outlook on Ecuador's sovereign ratings to negative from stable. The long-term foreign currency rating is affirmed at B- and the country ceiling is affirmed at B-. The short-term foreign currency rating is affirmed at B.

"There is a plausible muddle through scenario in which Ecuador will be able to cover its roughly $3 billion in financing needs through end-2006, but this will require reasonable fiscal performance underpinned by oil revenues, the availability of financing from multilateral lenders and other governments, and relative stability in the financial system and capital account," said Morgan Harting, Fitch senior director and lead Ecuador sovereign analyst.

Sovereign credit risk has increased recently on greater political instability and concerns about related fiscal pressures, Fitch said. The oil production interruption that began this month has left public finances more vulnerable to a decline in oil prices and to spending increases.


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